Acute water shortage likely to hit 25m tonnes wheat target

Saturday, November 15, 2008

By Jawwad Rizvi
LAHORE: The ongoing acute water shortage is likely to undermine the federal government’s wheat production target of 25 million tonnes set for this season.
The government and private sector agriculture experts are solely depending upon extraordinary weather pattern, which brings more rain as compared to the historic trend to meet ambitious wheat production targets.
The News gathered information from wheat growers as well as federal minister for food agriculture and livestock, Punjab agriculture and irrigation departments’ officials found a fear of missing wheat production targets due to forecast water shortage during whole Rabi season.
Both MINFAL minister Nazar Muhammad Gondal and Punjab Agriculture Minister Ahmed Ali Aulakh have announced 35 per cent water shortage at two different forums in Lahore two days ago.

The government officially at different forums admitted a water shortage of 35 per cent during the Rabi season at main water supply system ie in dams and canal heads. However, irrigation department experts and growers believed that water shortage would be increased 45 per cent due to water losses in the canal distribution systems, and small distributaries and water channels, which bring water from canals to fields.

According to the data of Punjab Irrigation Department available to The News, the province has consumed 4.19 Million Acre Feet (MAF) water of the total allocated share by the IRSA of 12.75 MAF to the province at the start of the Rabi season.

The irrigation department experts said the country has already shortage of water in its dams. The Tarbela level is 1452.2 feet from the last year 1464 feet registering a decline of 12 feet, which is equal to some 250,000 cusec water loss. Similarly, water shortage of some 420,000 cusecs is faced by the country in Mangla, as the current water level in the dam is 1140 feet as compared to the last year 1161 feet.

The Punjab Irrigation Department is committed to provide smooth water supply for wheat sowing campaign said an official of the department admitting that the department should maintain its water share given by IRSA till March 2009 to ensure water requirements of wheat crop. He further said the department can’t take risk to utilise whole of its share and completely depend on nature.

Progressive farmer Hamid Malhi commenting on wheat production target of 25 million tonnes said it is out of question to meet this target. Country’s wheat yield is likely to equal to the last year or slightly up, he remarked, adding that the wheat production figures were controversial but it will be some 21 million tonnes or a little bit more.

Talking about seeds issue, Malhi said every wheat grower has seeds and there is no such issue. However, there is some wheat replacement issue but it is not crucial. He was of the view that the high wheat price would bailout the country from wheat crisis and viewed that the government had fixed such price to avoid wheat crisis.

On the other hand, the Punjab Agriculture Department has targeted 17000,000 acres of land to sow wheat to achieve the production target of 20 million tonnes. According to the target figures assigned by the agriculture department to different districts, the department has fixed the per acre yield target of 31.52 maund per acre for the wheat crop 2008-09.

The department has fixed sowing target for Attock around 416,000 acres, with production target of almost 256,000 tonnes with per acre yield target at 16.49 maund per acre. In Rawalpindi, wheat sowing is likely on 323,000 acres with production target of 249,000 tonnes and per acre yield target is 20.63 maund.

In Jhelum, the sowing target is fixed at 139,000 acres and production target of 109,000 tonnes with per acre yield target at about 21 maund per acre. For Chakwal, the sowing area target is 323,000 acres, production targets 175,000 tonnes and per acre yield target is 14.53 maund. For Sargodha district, sowing target is 548,000 acres, production 600,000 tonnes and per acre yield target 29.37. For Khushab, the sowing target is about 227,000 acres, production target is 173,000 tonnes and per acre yield target is 23.50 maund. For Mianwali, the sowing target is 440,000 acres, production target is 390,000 tonnes and per acre yield has been fixed at 23.72 maund.

Likewise, the sowing target for the district Bhakkar is 421,000 acres, production target is 435,000 tonnes and per acre yield is 27.71 maund. Faisalabad’s sowing target is 706,000 acres, production target 894,000 tonnes and per acre yield target is 33.91 maund.

Toba Tek Singh’s sowing target is around 417,000 acres of land, production 584,000 tonnes and per acre yield 37.55 maund. Jhang’s sowing will be on 987,000 acres, production target will be 1235,000 tonnes and per acre yield target is 33.50 maund.

For Gujrat the agriculture department target sowing on an area of 383,000 acres of land, production target about 229,000 tonnes and per acre yield is 20.97 maund. Mandi Bahauddin sowing target is 325,000 acres, production target is about 403,000 tonnes and per acre yield target has been fixed at 33.14 maund. For Sialkot, the sowing target is 539,000 acres, production around 652,000 tonnes and per acre yield target has been fixed at 32.42 maund.

For Narowal, the sowing target is 415,000 acres, production 408,000 tonnes and per acre yield at 26.34 maund. For Gujranwala, the area for sowing has been targeted at 607,000 acres, production about 887,000 tonnes and per acre yield at 39.12 maund.

In Hafizabad, the department has targeted some 393,000 acres land for wheat sowing setting production target of 544,000 tonnes with per acre yield of 37.11 maund.

Wheat is likely to be sowed at some 461,000 acres lands in Sheikhupura with production targets of 548,000 tonnes and per acre yield of 31.84 per maund. Nankana Sahib sowing target is 422,000 acres, production 578,000 tonnes and per acre yield at 36.68 maund. Kasur sowing target 478,000 acres, production 623,000 tonnes and per acre yield at 34.91 maund. Okara around 514,000 acres, production 786,000 tonnes and per acre yield at 41 maund. For Sahiwal, the sowing target is 370,000 acres, production 481,000 tonnes and per acre yield at 34.76 maund.